New Poll by Vanguard and Denno Research

May 24, 2019

For Donald Trump in Michigan, there’s good news and bad news, according to a recent poll conducted by Vanguard Public Affairs and Denno Research. 

 

Good news for Trump: More than half of Michigan voters (55 percent) are opposed to impeachment. Males (+29), white voters (+31), Republicans (+85), and voters in Macomb County (+36) significant oppose to the move, while younger voters (+1), African Americans (+60), Democrats (+47), and the city of Detroit (+51) support impeachment.

 

Bad news for Trump: Donald Trump is losing by 10 points to a generic Democratic challenger – meaning that any of the 23 Democrats running against the incumbent would defeat him if the election were held today.

 

“It’s clear Trump doesn’t yet stand a good chance for being elected to a second term by Michigan voters,” said TJ Bucholz, President and Managing Partner at Vanguard Public Affairs. “Michiganders would elect anyone – literally anyone – over Trump if they had a D behind their name right now.”

 

When asked which Democrat had their vote if the Primary were held today, former Vice President Joe Biden led the field, with 37 percent of those surveyed. The remaining breakdown of candidate support in Michigan was as follows:

 

  • Joe Biden 37%

  • Bernie Sanders 16%

  • Elizabeth Warren  9%

  • Pete Buttiegieg  5%

  • Kamala Harris  4%

  • Cory Booker  3%

  • All others  Less than 1 percent each

  • Unsure/Undecided 23%

 

Vanguard Public Affairs and Denno Research offered the names of 22 Democratic candidates for President to self-identified Democrats – only the six listed above polled higher than 1 percent in Michigan.

 

“Michigan is a critical swing state for Trump – if he doesn’t win here, he can kiss the Presidency goodbye,” said Dennis Denno, President of Denno Research. “It’s also interesting that Bernie Sanders, who carried Michigan in the 2016 Michigan Presidential Primary – is losing almost 2:1 to Biden.  In fact, Sanders is losing to undecided, which is not a good starting point for the Sanders campaign.”

 

In the 2020 race for US Senate in Michigan, incumbent Gary Peters has a lead over a generic Republican candidate, but that lead is only just outside the margin of error in the poll, Denno said.

 

Democratic US Senator Gary Peters holds a slight edge in the poll – with 42 percent of respondents say they would vote for him, with 36 percent said they would vote for a generic Republican. 21 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

 

“Certainly there’s a lot of time on the clock for Peters to shore up his supporters, but if Republicans put up a dynamic candidate against him, he could have a fight on his hands,” Bucholz said.

 

With five months under their belts as Governor and Attorney General, voters are split on the performances of Gretchen Whitmer and Dana Nessel, Bucholz said.

 

When asked on a scale of one to five, with one being low and five being high, to rate the job performance of Whitmer and Nessel, 27% of respondents gave Whitmer a high rating (a 4 or 5), while 17% gave Nessel a high rating in a similar grouping.

 

Approximately 32% of those surveyed gave Whitmer a low rating (a 1 or 2), while 19 percent gave Nessel a low rating. Whitmer received a 3 rating from 28 percent of respondents, while Nessel received a 3 rating from 21 percent, Denno said.

 

Whitmer had better name identification with only 15 percent those surveyed saying they did not know who she was, while 43 percent of respondents said they did not recognize Nessel’s name.

 

The poll, which surveyed 600 likely general election voters across Michigan from May 8 to May 10, had a margin of error of plus/minus of 4 percent, with 35% of respondents reached on their cell phones.

 

  

 

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